September 2022 U.S. golf rounds played were down 1.7 percent vs. September 2021 according to the monthly report from Golf Datatech. This follows the August 2022 reading which was up 3.9 percent and July 2022 reading that was up 2.5 percent.
We are now past the belly of the rounds played months, so after September we would expect the volatility of the rounds played readings to increase. Year-to-date through September, rounds played declined 2.5 percent compared to the January-September period in 2021. Looking at Exhibit 1, the September 2022 reading was up against an 8-percent decline in September 2021. When we walk through the calculation, we find that September 2022 YTD is still tracking almost 16 percent ahead of YTD September 2019.
U.S. Monthly Golf Rounds Played Monthly Comps: 2021-September 2022
Source: Golf Datatech, National Golf Foundation, Compass Point Research
Regional results were skewed to the downside with five out of eight regions down Year over Year. The strongest regional contribution came from the South Central region, which was up 2.5 percent. The weakest reading came from the East North Central region, down 4.8 percent. The South Central region experienced 57 percent less precipitation, which was the driver of the improved reading. The East North Central region experienced slightly higher precipitation, up 7 percent YoY. The remainder of the positive regions were marked by moderate temperatures and significantly lower precipitation.
In previous reports, we had discussed the likelihood that in 2022 U.S. golf rounds played would likely track much closer to traditional metrics as the COVID-19 play bubble receded. Pellucid Corp. does excellent work tracking the real impact of weather by calculating golf playable hours (the number of hours in each geography where the weather actually allows golf to be played). We would expect the volatility of rounds played results to increase as the year comes to a close as the actual number of rounds played begins to decrease.
As Exhibit 2 clearly shows, 2022 changes in U.S. golf rounds played are tracking closely with the change in golf playable hours. In September, golf playable hours were 2 percent worse than in September 2021. This was an excellent proxy for rounds played declining by 1.7 percent YoY in September. But once again, when the weather skews to the downside, rounds played seem to consistently outperform the GPH number.
The point is that when the weather has even marginally allowed for it, golfers increased their play. Cumulatively, golf playable hours in 2022 are down 5 percent YTD vs. 2021, while rounds played are down only 2.5 percent.
Golf Playable Hours 2022 Monthly Change vs. 2021
Source: Pellucid Corp, Compass Point Research
We continue to think it will be fascinating to see how U.S. golf rounds played finish out 2022. We will continue watching for clues as to the sustainability of golf in the post-pandemic era. But rounds played are beginning to normalize to the extent that weather is having more impact.
Release: Compass Point Research & Trading LLC