Right around the time the bubble burst and the Great Recession wreaked havoc on the economy, American golf encountered one of its darker periods in recent memory.
That’s not to suggest Americans weren’t still the most dominant country in the men’s game – that’s been the case for nearly a century – but their dominance had been slowed. Signs of the relative struggle may not have been clear because Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson were in their primes. However, in retrospect, the two best players of their generation masked an unsightly lack of depth among Americans.
It was at the 2006 Ryder Cup in Ireland when the U.S. brought not a single player under the age of 30 and filled out their team with the likes of Chad Campbell, Vaughn Taylor, J.J. Henry, Brett Wetterich and Scott Verplank. All are respectable players who won on the PGA Tour, but it’s difficult to argue that any of them had business being on a Ryder Cup team. The results showed as the Americans lost in a landslide, 18½-9½.
What does all of this mean in present day? If nothing else, it’s a reminder of how drastically things have spun in the opposite direction. The Americans are currently enjoying what is arguably the best (and deepest) crop of players they’ve had in the last 20 years.
There were 16 Americans in the top 25 of the mid-March world rankings in 1999, after which a steady decline took place. The stranglehold shifted to a much weaker grip during the latter part of the decade, to a low of seven in 2008. That has now reversed to where the U.S. has 15 of the top 25 players in the world, 46 of the top 100, 19 of the top 25 in the FedEx Cup standings and 16 of this year’s 20 PGA Tour winners.
Since 2015, seven different Americans have accounted for 11 major championships. It’s a stark contrast from the 2005-2008 majors stretch where the only American beside Woods and Mickelson to win a major was Zach Johnson.
The difference is not just at the top with star players. On this week 10 years ago, 34 of the top 100 in the world were Americans. Last year at this time, that number had grown to 49 Americans, a sizable gap when compared to the late 2000s. That one-week example holds true no matter which date you pick.
Americans still looking for a first major victory – seven of those 15 in the current top 25 are in that category – could figure prominently into this year’s Masters.
Being American is no prerequisite to winning the Masters, as five international players – all from different countries, no less – have won the green jacket in the past decade. However, five of the last eight champions have been American and, as previously mentioned, the U.S. has been on a significant majors tear since 2015. It’s worth taking a deeper look at which Americans are in the best position to play well at Augusta.
It’s hard to argue against world No. 1 Dustin Johnson having the best chance among Americans. His well-balanced stats have been borderline unfair this season. Prior to the Valspar Championship, Johnson sat in the media room and had an amusing exchange with one reporter who asked if he could ballpark where he stood in three of the prominent strokes gained stats.
Johnson isn’t an analytics junkie, but he took some guesses based on how he feels he has played this season. For total driving, he estimated he was 10th. For approach shots, top 5. For putting, top 20. The real answers? 22nd, seventh and 16th. Combine those with being 21st in strokes gained around the green, and it’s no wonder why Johnson has three straight top 10s and could be headed to a win today at the Valspar.
The stats and results haven’t been nearly as rosy for Brooks Koepka, the three-time major winner who missed the Masters last year due to injury. He did have a win at the CJ Cup during the fall and came one stroke short of a playoff at the Honda Classic, but the other results have been uninspiring. More concerning than his 151st strokes gained putting ranking is that Koepka hasn’t been anywhere close to dominant off the tee, as he ranks 59th. He’s never finished outside the top 30 in his PGA Tour career.
Justin Thomas has made all three of his cuts at Augusta but has yet to seriously contend. He’s been all around the top of the leaderboard this year, having collected four top 10s despite not being able to come through on Sunday for victories in Phoenix and Los Angeles. If his putter (ranked 85th in strokes gained putting) cooperates, he could easily be a factor because of his dynamic ball-striking (third in strokes gained tee-to-green).
Rickie Fowler has the opposite problem. His putting continues to be some of the best on the PGA Tour (ranked eighth in strokes gained putting) but he has been somewhat pedestrian in ball-striking stats. If Fowler is going to win a major, wouldn’t this year’s Masters be the prime candidate? Besides winning earlier this year in Phoenix and finishing tied for second at the Honda Classic, Fowler has four top 12’s since 2014 at Augusta. It’s a particularly great place for an elite putter.
Americans still looking for a first major victory – seven of those 15 in the current top 25 are in that category – could figure prominently into this year’s Masters. Bryson DeChambeau won earlier this year in Dubai and will surely be leaving the flag in for most of his putts on the slick surfaces. That will get everyone’s attention, but it is his driving (eighth in strokes gained off the tee) that gives him an opportunity to contend. How about Xander Schauffele, the quietest top-10 player in the world? He’s won twice this season and five of his six starts in 2019 have resulted in top-25 finishes.
And then there are the real storyline stealers. Defending champion Patrick Reed and Augusta-loving Jordan Spieth find themselves in a momentary state of panic, and this time it isn’t related to the Ryder Cup. According to Golf Channel, Reed was so lost with his swing at the Valspar that his wife Justine had to call for instructor David Leadbetter to look things over. Reed missed the cut by light years, but still spent Saturday working with Leadbetter on the Innisbrook range in hopes of recapturing a groove. Spieth has fallen to 30th in the world rankings largely due to driver issues. He ranks 205th in strokes gained off the tee and his last top 10 came eight months ago at the Open Championship.
The elder statesmen in the American contingent are in far better shape heading to Augusta. Mickelson won at Pebble Beach last month and has averaged more clubhead speed this year than he did 12 years ago. Woods has yet to contend for a tournament this year but all four of his finishes have been in the top 30. Matt Kuchar has already won twice this season. Even Jim Furyk, who isn’t qualified as of this writing, has charged from 223rd in the world to 57th in less than three months.
It’s a safe assumption at least one of these Americans will have an impact down the stretch on Sunday, but if we know anything about Augusta, there’s always a surprise lurking around the dogleg.