The 2026 season is already off to a rough start in so many ways. Golf, for its part, stumbled out of the gate with an unscheduled bye week already before the PGA Tour begins this week at what may be the last Sony Open in Hawaii.
The smoke signals coming out of PGA Tour headquarters seem ominous for traditionalists. Talk of profound changes to future scheduling portend a dramatic disruption to the circadian rhythm of the golf season. New CEO Brian Rolapp and his future competition committee seem intent on trimming established events in invested communities to create a slimmer model that appeases private-equity return interests and a few elite stars.
On one hand, it makes sense because the PGA Tour season can feel long in its primary eight-month window from January through August. On the other hand, the Major League Baseball season runs nearly as long and practically every day from Opening Day to Game 7 of the World Series and nobody is screaming for it to be shorter.
There is value to the cadence of having top-level golf live on our TV sets every week, and especially in the early months as the season steadily ratchets up toward the Masters in April while many Americans still await home courses opening in the spring. Something can be lost inside and outside the ropes if you tamper with that routine too much. Players have spoken about the grinding intensity of the more condensed major schedule from the Players through the FedEx Cup playoffs. Those early months – and some of the familiar venues – have value in letting players build momentum where they want and at their own pace.
In lieu of the typical preseason predictions, here are some projected highs and lows for the coming year in golf:
BIRDIE: Transfer portal. The PGA Tour is making room for Brooks Koepka and any LIV Golf defectors of his recent major-winning ilk (Jon Rahm, Bryson DeChambeau and Cameron Smith) to return to the motherland via its “Returning Member Program.” It’ll only cost $5 million to charity, no player equity for five years and no FedEx Cup bonuses or sponsor invites into signature events in the first year back. But if you choose now you can be eligible to play immediately. To deter anyone else from flip-flopping for a big Saudi check, it’ll cost you two years before the preferred customer offer may (or may not) be available again. Regular Joes or Phil Mickelson are not eligible. Hurry now while supplies last before the new LIV season starts.
BOGEY: Scarcity. It’s understandable to consider a tighter schedule that will suffer fewer early ratings losses to the NFL, but some of the concepts such as ceding January entirely, building in post-major off weeks and jettisoning several long-standing events is overcompensating and would be detrimental to the tour’s established rhythm. There’s a reasonable compromise by starting three weeks later in January with a Saturday signature Sentry finish (before the NFL’s conference championship Sunday) and starting the full-field schedule the wide-open week before the Super Bowl.
BOGEY: Hawaii. It sadly looks like the season-opening Aloha swing may soon be history. If so, we will miss the views from Kapalua and Waialae while we’re bundled up in northern climes. At least leave us Kapalua in the more favorable late window suggested above. Kapalua, Palm Springs (or Torrey Pines), Phoenix, Pebble Beach and Riviera can make for a great five-week opening stretch and no NFL conflicts.
BIRDIE: Global thinking. If Kapalua is regrettably off the table, the PGA Tour should be more worldly and take its brand and stars to an international market. Here’s where the strategic partnership with the DP World Tour can prove beneficial, by opening the season in the warm Melbourne sand belt with a co-sanctioned Australia Tournament of Champions before the tour shifts stateside. If not right up front, find a place for Australia somewhere on the PGA Tour fall schedule. Conceding an entire golf-rich continent to LIV is just bad business.
DOUBLE BOGEY: Aiding and abetting. If the PGA Tour is really dumb enough to create open weeks immediately following majors – when ratings illustrate fan interest remains strong – that will leave open the door for LIV Golf to fill that void and start building a foothold it doesn’t currently have with American audiences. It’s hard to believe that the sharpest minds in golf would deliver such an own goal.
BIRDIE: Major stories. The brightest lights in golf are still its crown jewel major championships, and we deserve to get the biggest narratives out of them. This year’s best outcomes will be: care-free Rory McIlroy becoming the fourth repeat Masters winner; Justin Rose, 45, winning the PGA at Aronimink; Scottie Scheffler joining the career-slam club in his first attempt at completing it in the U.S. Open at Shinnecock Hills; and hometown darling Tommy Fleetwood hoisting the claret jug at Royal Birkdale.
BIRDIE: Winners. The FedEx Cup champion will be Xander Schauffele. Rookie of the year will be Marco Penge. Comeback player of the year will be Will Zalatoris. And McIlroy will catch Colin Montgomerie with his eighth Race to Dubai title.
BIRDIE: Major Players. If the PGA Tour wants its flagship event to be considered major caliber, it needs to get over itself and be bigger. Do you see the actual majors excluding qualified LIV golfers from teeing it up? Nope. Ponte Vedra Beach execs need to suck it up and invite the top 100 players in the world regardless of tour, and then flesh out the last 56 spots with its tour roster. It may still never be officially regarded as a major, but it’s not in the conversation as is without all the best players there.
TRIPLE BOGEY: Affordable golf. Last year went out in the worst way, with the administration trumping up reasons for terminating the 50-year lease of the National Links Trust that was in the process of rehabilitating and reinvigorating three historic public golf courses in Washington D.C. with pro bono work spearheaded by Gil Hanse (Rock Creek Park), Tom Doak (East Potomac) and Beau Welling (Langston). All three municipal courses are potentially on the brink of closing in the short term, with the long-term outlook for sustained neglect and perhaps a high-end vanity project nobody asked for led by Tom Fazio. Make it make sense.
BIRDIE: Expanded rota. Fingers crossed this will be the year that the R&A officially announces a future Open Championship outside of Great Britain for the first time, with Portmarnock in the Republic of Ireland getting the nod for 2028. This is the logical end game after forcing the generic rebranding of what used to be universally called the British Open. As long as pursuit of the Claret Jug stays on the isles and on great links, who can complain?
BOGEY: Turnberry. Well, there’s one person who will complain, but the hostile takeover of municipal golf in Washington D.C. – a move at odds with the mission of golf’s governing bodies – makes it even easier for the R&A to continue to exclude the remote Ayrshire links from consideration in the immediate future. It would be unconscionable to go back there as things stand.
BOGEY: America first. Sadly, this probably won’t be the year when the PGA of America embraces similar global-mindedness about taking any future championships outside of the States on occasion. Even if it would just embrace the “Americas” for broadcast window purposes and once every six or 10 years take it abroad to someplace like Argentina’s Jockey Club (Alister MacKenzie composite course) or Brazil’s Santapazienza (Tom Fazio) or Rio’s Olympic Course (Gil Hanse), it would make such an appealing statement. The PGA could use some good PR after the Ryder Cup debacle.
DOUBLE BOGEY: Unappealing settlement. At some point this year, the deferred appeal of Jon Rahm and Tyrrell Hatton of fines related to their leaving the DP World Tour for LIV Golf may finally be addressed, and there’s no reason to believe the tour won’t succeed again in arbitration. Rahm and Hatton, however, seem entrenched to never pay the necessary fines out of their own well-lined pockets. It seems likely the European circuit will cave in some fashion and reach a settlement to keep two key Ryder Cup players eligible in 2027, but nobody will cover themselves in glory when that surrender comes.
BOGEY: TGL/WTGL. Ratings have plummeted for the tech-infused simulator league, and it’s no surprise considering its scheduling is an unadulterated mess. Simple fix is to create a consistent scheduling model next season so interested viewers know when it will be on and where to watch (see the NFL). Take advantage of no tour golf in the first few weeks of January with women/men doubleheaders every Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday at the same times each night on the same networks. Then settle into a weekly Tuesday night routine the rest of the season.
BIRDIE: OWGR inclusion. Assuming LIV Golf makes necessary tweaks in relegation and access to its ranks based on competitive merit and not contractual favoritism, the Official World Golf Ranking needs to accept the league’s application for inclusion in the system – at least starting in 2027. It’s not going to shake up the world order, but it will shut up the grievance narrative.
BIRDIE: Ceremonial Tiger. He’s never coming back as a serious contender, but it would be nice to see a healthy Tiger Woods participate in the majors as well as the U.S. and British Senior Opens and the PNC Championship. That’s not too much to ask and hopefully won’t overwhelm his body. Meanwhile, please accept the captain’s reins for the 2027 Ryder Cup in Ireland already.